The Auston Matthews Problem

As a Leaf fan, you tend to hear some crazy stuff. And as the other first round players start getting their bonus heavy entry level contract, you start to hear even crazier stuff. As you may or may not know by now, I am talking about how Matthews hasn’t signed his entry level deal.

Personally, I dont think there is any problem here. Granted, with Lamoriello’s no signing bonus policy it will be hard, but this isn’t the first time Lamoriello has had to sign a first round pick without bonuses.

So what’s going to happen? Going forward, I see three possible options: endorsements, signing bonuses, and lastly, the waiting game. 

Endorsements, Endorsements Everywhere!

The most likely out of the three, Auston Matthews signs his (less than standard) $925,000 entry level deal without any bonuses because Lou for some reason values his opinion over a franchise centre like Matthews. 

However, similar to the Stamkos speculation, it is not unreasonable to think that Matthews could pull in an extra million or two just in endorsements.  

You Get a Bonus, and You Get a Bonus!

The next likely of the three, Matthews gets the signing bonuses (that he may or may not deserve) on top of his entry level contract. 

According to sportsnet, the Matthews deal would break down into the following:

• “925,000 in salary, with $92,500 of it paid in signing bonus;
• $850,000 in “Schedule A” bonuses, which are tied to individual achievements such as goals, points, time on ice, etc.;
• $2 million in “Schedule B” bonuses, which are given for league-wide excellence such as trophy nominations or finishing among the scoring leaders, making them extremely tough to hit.”

The Waiting Game

The least likely of the three, Matthews doesn’t sign with the club that drafted him.

This is obviously the least likely option because if Matthews doesn’t sign, he doesn’t play. Under the terms of the CBA, Matthews would have to wait until he is 22 in order to sign with another team. 

But, because it’s leaf land, there are several rumours that the leafs could (and apparently should) trade the rights of Matthews to Arizona. 

What do you think? Did I forget to say something? Please don’t let me get away with it! Let me know in the comments what your opinion is, and maybe we can hash things out on the internet like adults!

What Did the Pre-Season Tell Us?

The Record

The Leafs went 3-5-0 in the preseason: winning their first 3 games (2 during the split squad against Ottawa, and one against Montreal), and dropping their last 5 to Montreal, Buffalo, and Detriot.

What Does this Mean?

Well, this could mean a lot of things. It could mean that Babcocks “pain” is coming. It could be a reflection of the bad season to come. Which is probably the most likely. But I think that this preseason speaks to the young talent the leafs have developing.

Toronto had a full roster, half of which were newbies when they were winning games. When our young guns were firing at opposing young guns, our guns were more powerful. When we cut our rookies to make way for a more experienced roster, so that we could face more experienced opponents, our team started to lose.

This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, it gives leaf fans hope for the upcoming years. Which is something that Leaf fans have been doing for years: I’m sure that you have heard a fan say “maybe next year” almost every year in the past decade. So there is nothing to worry about, unless you plan on betting on the leafs. If so, you may want to reconsider.

What Does the Future Hold?

Loses. Lots of Loses.

Unfortunately, the new draft system doesn’t help the leafs out:

Three draws will be held: the 1st Lottery draw will determine the Club selecting first overall, the 2nd Lottery draw will determine the Club selecting second overall and the 3rd Lottery draw will determine the club selecting third overall.

As a result of this change, the team earning the fewest points during the regular season will no longer be guaranteed

(http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=728795)

Therefore, while Toronto may get last, they will not be guaranteed anything but the 4th round pick.

Leaf fans be warned: you better get ready for a bumpy ride.

What do you think? Did I forget to say something? Please don’t let me get away with it! Let me know in the comments what your opinion is, and maybe we can hash things out on the internet like adults!

Mark Fraser a Leaf Again?

The Leafs released their training camp roster, and to everyones surprise, former Leaf Mark Fraser attending on a PTO. So, what does this mean for the team?

It means that there is another bargain bin player on the roster that may be shipped away at the trade deadline for a mid-low range draft pick. Fraser collected 4 assists and 55 penalty minutes last season in his 34 starts with the New Jersey Devils.

It could also mean that the team is trying to make it even harder for the younger players to make the team. If Fraser makes the team, that would give the team 9 NHL ready defencemen, with at least 30 NHL games last season, on their roster (Andrew Campbell, Mark Fraser, Jake Gardiner, Matt Hunwick, Martin Marincin, Dion Phaneuf, Roman Polak, Morgan Rielly, and Stephane Robidas).

Or, they could also be looking to add some bottom 3 defencemen that can add some grit to a team with little to none on it.

Overall, you are looking at a defencemen that is going to be playing 3rd line minutes, along with some penalty kill time, if he isn’t in the box himself.

Here is the full roster:

What do you think? Did I forget to say something? Please don’t let me get away with it! Let me know in the comments what your opinion is, and maybe we can hash things out on the internet like adults!

What Happened this Week? (Sept 6-13)

You Get a PTO, and You Get a PTO!

Brad Boyes

The Leafs have signed Brad Boyes to a PTO this week. Boyes could be a good potential grab for the Leafs, should he make the team, collecting a low of 23 points and a high of 41 points over the last 4 seasons.

Curtis Glencross

The veteran winger signed a PTO with the Leafs this week as well. Assuming that he makes the team, he could bring at least 10 goals and 20 points to a team that needs to make up for scoring.

A Potential Trade was Avoided!

Leafs Almost Traded JVR in Summer

Apparently over the Summer, the Leafs had some considerable interest in James van Riemsdyk. Thankfully nothing became of it and the ended up trading away his linemate Kessel.

Should they have traded JVR instead of Kessel I think that they would have made a mistake. Kessel was a statement for the team, trading away JVR would have been a completely different statement and could have been a step backwards for the teams rebuild.

Rielly wants to be a Leader on his Young Team

According to the Score, Rielly wants to be a “go to guy” on his team next year. Unfortunately, I don’t think that Rielly is ready for a leadership role on the team, and I think that the Leafs recent signing of veterans to PTO’s speaks to this fact. Sure, Rielly may be the center of this teams future, but I don’t think that he is ready to start acting like it.

What do you think? Did I forget to say something? Please don’t let me get away with it! Let me know in the comments what your opinion is, and maybe we can hash things out on the internet like adults!

The Forgotten One: Daniel Winnik

With all of the hype now surrounding Devin Setoguchi and Shawn Matthias, I feel like one of the most important off season hires has been over looked. Sure, Winnik may not have the potential to score 20 goals like Setoguchi and Matthias may have, but he brings leadership and support to a team that has been shaken from the bottom up.

Also, lets not forget that the Leafs retrieved two picks and Zach Sill for Winnik before the trade deadline. Even though Winnik is not signed short term (he signed a two-year, worth 5 million dollars on July 1st), he could still bring a significant return near deadline day.

Winnik will also be receiving a bigger role than he did last year with the Leafs. In his previous year with the Leafs he played primarily on the penalty kill and on the 3rd line. The Star predicts that Winnik will be paired with Bozak and Parenteau on the 2nd, however, I feel that the chemistry that JVR and Bozak share will lead to Winnik playing mostly with Kadri: Something that may be beneficial, because of the defensive strength Winnik brings to the game and the defensive mistakes that Kadri cannot seem to stop making.

On top of his bigger role, Winnik will have to lead the power play that he left last season. Winnik’s numbers last season were great for him on a personal level. He lead the Leafs in PP/TIO at 3:27 per game and was second in the league 4 vs 5 TIO and was even on track to have a career year.

#InItToWinnik pic.twitter.com/Hma5FlWYuH

— Domenic Galamini (@MimicoHero) July 1, 2015

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

But hey, maybe Winnik’s numbers suggest that he was just having a good, an out of the ordinary year. Or maybe Winnik has found a city to call home. With all that being said, here’s hoping that wherever, or whatever we get in return for Winnik its more than what he’s leaving behind!

What do you think? Did I forget to say something? Please don’t let me get away with it! Let me know in the comments what your opinion is, and maybe we can hash things out on the internet like adults!

What to Expect: Devin Setoguchi

Wild fans help Devin Setoguchi celebrate his third period goal, the only score in Minnesota’s 1-0 win over the Avalanche Thursday, November 17, 2011 at the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul. (Pioneer Press: Chris Polydoroff)

According to a report by Glenn Campbell, Devin Setoguchi is close to signing a professional tryout contract with the leafs. So, what can we expect from Setoguchi? When looking at his recent numbers…not too much.

If being optimistic is your thing, then you are looking at a potential 30 goal scorer. Granted, you have to look all the way back into 2008-2009 to see that potential, but it’s still there. Who cares that most of this success can be attributed to the talented Joe Thornton setting up Setoguchi for a career high (and 33rd highest in the league at the time), 246 shots. Nobody, probably…

However, if being realistic is more your thing, then you are looking at anything but a 30 goal scorer. In his most recent year, with the Calgary Flames, Devin achieved zero points in 12 games – acquiring a negative 12 plus/minus, and 12 shots on goal. This lead to him being demoted to the Flames AHL affiliate team. Only collecting 3 goals, and 1o points in 19 games with the Adirondack Flames.

The one thing that Setoguchi has going for him, is his shooting percentage. Over his career, he has had a pretty consistent shooting percentage at around 11%. Only dipping below 10% in his two most recent seasons, and hitting a career high in 2012-2013 at 13.4%. What does that mean? Well it means there’s hope. A shooting percentage of 11 puts Setoguchi on par with Kessel, JVR, Lupul, and Kadri’s shooting percentage last season.

Do I believe that Setoguchi will make the Leafs (if he signs the professional tryout contract)? No…The Leafs have a rebuilding team with an eye on draft picks, not playoffs. Their line-up is almost full and they are not in desperate need of anyone else. So why even offer him a chance?

I believe that the Leafs are trying to turn Setoguchi around with hopes of trading him for more picks at the deadline, something the Leafs have grown accustom to over the past few years. So really, this is only a win situation for them. If it doesn’t work out, the Leafs loose nothing. If it does, Setoguchi gets a chance to play in the NHL again, and the Leafs get another chance to draft another superstar with the draft picks they get in exchange for him.

What do you think? Did I forget to say something? Please don’t let me get away with it! Let me know in the comments what your opinion is, and maybe we can hash things out on the internet like adults!

What to Expect: Shawn Matthias

Shawn Matthias joined the Leafs when he signed a one-year, 2.3 million dollar contract on July 6th. Since then, not a lot has been said about the 6’4 27 year old winger…until now. In an interview today (as per the Toronto Star) the winger states that he wants to be part of the team’s long term success, and not just become a second round pick in early March.

So what does this mean? Lets say, hypothetically, he remains with the team and resigns…what can we expect from him?

Over the past 3 seasons, Matthias is a 20 point scorer. More recently, Matthias has the potential to be a 20 goal scorer. Is this what we can expect? I think so. The Star believes that Matthias is going to be put on the 4th line with centre Mark Arcobello, and right-wing Leo Komarov.

On the 4th line, it is conservative to say that Matthias collects 10 – 15 minutes of ice time a game. Even though these minutes are low, this is something that Matthias is used to: in his 78 games in Vancouver, Matthias collected 18 goals with an average time on ice of 13 minutes a game. Even when facing low ice time, Matthias can still put it in the back of the net. Then assume that Arcobello can improve on his 16 points (9 goals) in 27 games, and Komarov can build off of his hot streak last year, and people can start being hopeful that Matthias can put 20 goals in the back of the net.

All of this is just talk. Numbers are just numbers, and I can’t speak to the Leafs lack of true offence next season. And who knows, the Leafs might just spend most of their games in their own end; hurting everyones point totals.

And who knows, he might have a career year and we can squeeze a 1st round pick out of him at the trade-deadline!

What do you think? Did I forget to say something? Please don’t let me get away with it! Let me know in the comments what your opinion is, and maybe we can hash things out on the internet like adults!

Why the Maple Leafs DIDN’T Screw up with Bernier

 I recently read an article talking about how the Leafs should have done things differently with Bernier’s contract. I disagree. I think that the Leafs handled things the best they could. 

First, the Leafs had an arbitration deadline looming, and with that comes a lot of risk…and a one-year contract, as opposed to the two-year deal they signed him to. 

Second, although Bernier is a good goalie, he has not proven himself as much as the Leafs may have wanted him to. He has played 175 NHL regular season games, and as a (soon to be) 27 year old goalie, those are not a lot: compared to Steve Mason (26) who has played 351 career regular season games, or Semyon Varlamov (26) who has played 267 career games. Even though Bernier isn’t well proven in terms of games played, he is a good goalie. Which is why I believe the Leafs didn’t want to risk a one-year arbitration ruling, but is also why they didn’t sign him for another 5-7 years.

Lastly, the Leafs still have Reimer. Remember him? The guy that carried the Leafs to a Stanley Cup playoff a few years ago. All I’m saying is that the Leafs have options besides Bernier. 

Do I like the contract? Ya, it’s a good one. It has years to it, and the salary isn’t that bad, which could make him appealing at the next two trade dealines. 

What do you think? Did I forget to say something? Please don’t let me get away with it! Let me know in the comments what your opinion is, and maybe we can hash things out on the internet like adults!

All of the stats provided by hockey-reference.com

Bernier & Leafs Agree to Terms!

 The Toronto Maple Leafs and Jonathan Bernier have agree to terms, according to The Score. 

The reported deal is a 2 year, $8.3 million contract (or 4.15 annually).

I think that this deal speaks a little more than numbers. It says that the Leafs are willing to commit, and they may be saying goodbye to Reimer, who is make a whopping $2 million less than Bernier. 

I’m glad that the Leafs reached a deal with the net minder, and I hope that Bernier can prove his worth even more in the upcoming seasons!

Did I forget to say something? Please don’t let me get away with it! Let me know in the comments what your opinion is, and maybe we can hash things out on the internet like adults!

Bernier & Leafs are off to Arbitration

As reported before, the Leafs and Bernier were apart in there arbitration deal…over 2 million dollars apart. That didn’t seem to change as the Toronto will be letting the arbitrator decide what Bernier is worth.

What does this mean? A bigger payday for Bernier, and less money to spend for Toronto. The guess now is that Bernier will receive around $4.4 million to $4.6 million for the next season, as per the Toronto Sun.

Personally, for one year, I think Bernier deserves somewhere in the low 4 million, not the mid. But we will see what the arbitrator decides!

Did I forget to say something? Please don’t let me get away with it! Let me know in the comments what your opinion is, and maybe we can hash things out on the internet like adults!